Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan
Growing geopolitical instability and the erosion of a rules-based international order are posing increasing challenges to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and President Xi Jinping’s global development, security, and governance initiatives, particularly across the Global South.
Security experts and international observers warn that rising unilateralism, economic protectionism, and power-based coercion—especially by the United States—are reshaping the global landscape. Recent tensions involving Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba, alongside expanding sanctions regimes, underscore a shift toward a disorder driven by force rather than multilateral norms. As a result, BRI projects across Latin America, the Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region face heightened political and security risks beyond 2026.
In South Asia, Afghanistan has emerged as a major concern for Chinese investments due to persistent instability and attacks on Chinese workers linked to mining and infrastructure projects. Similar security threats in parts of Central Asia, including Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, have raised questions about the sustainability of BRI projects amid competing Western strategic initiatives and regional volatility.
Iran also represents a critical pressure point. Ongoing unrest, coupled with the risk of external intervention and expanding trade restrictions, threatens long-term Chinese investments under the BRI framework. Disruptions in Iran could undermine China’s plans for alternative trade corridors linking Asia with Europe.
Meanwhile, political uncertainty and shifting alliances in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives may slow the pace of BRI expansion in South Asia, affecting China’s broader regional strategy. In this context, accelerating the implementation of CPEC Phase-II is increasingly viewed as a strategic necessity to safeguard connectivity and supply chains.
Despite these challenges, the BRI has delivered measurable economic benefits. World Bank data shows that BRI participation has boosted trade, raised GDP levels in low-income countries, and expanded the economic share of emerging economies. However, analysts argue that emerging geopolitical rivalries, technological fragmentation, and competition over critical minerals, AI, and digital infrastructure could constrain future gains.
With global governance under strain—marked by prolonged conflicts, humanitarian crises, and institutional paralysis—the coming years are likely to test the resilience of China’s global economic vision. Strengthening regional partnerships, diversifying routes, and protecting overseas investments will be critical for sustaining the BRI in an increasingly fragmented world.
Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan is President of The Center for Knowledge and Public Policy and Regional Expert on China, CPEC, BRI & World Affairs
