Tajikistan has entered 2026 amid an unusually mild winter, raising serious concerns for farmers and the country’s agricultural outlook.
Meteorologists warn that the warm start to the season could be followed by sudden and severe cold snaps, a combination that poses heightened risks to crops and future harvests.
Mild January, threat of late frost
January 2026 has been significantly warmer than usual across Tajikistan. The Agency for Hydrometeorology reports that average temperatures are running 1–2°C above long-term norms, while precipitation levels remain below average.
In lowland areas, nighttime temperatures are forecast to range from –5°C to +2°C, with daytime highs reaching up to +12°C. Rain, sleet, snow, and stronger winds are expected in the second half of the month.
Forecasters caution, however, that February and March may bring abrupt temperature drops. From late January through February, nighttime temperatures could fall to –17°C to –20°C, potentially causing serious damage to plants that have already begun to emerge from winter dormancy.
Agriculture under strain
The absence of stable snow cover combined with mild winter conditions has increased crop vulnerability, particularly due to premature vegetation growth.
In southern Tajikistan, early sprouting and bud swelling have already been observed in some fruit trees. A subsequent frost could destroy blossoms and buds, resulting in major yield losses.
“If frost hits plants that have already started developing or blooming, the consequences could be very serious,” warned agronomist Bakhtiyor Hoitboyev.
Warm winters also enable insect pests, harmful bacteria, and fungi to survive more easily, increasing threats to winter crops that typically rely on snow cover for protection.
Farmers express concern
Farmers across the country say uncertainty is growing.
“If there is no snow and frost comes when plants start growing, we could lose a large part of the harvest,” said a farmer from Hisor, noting that while irrigation can help, water access remains limited in many areas.
Orchard owners report similar fears. Some recall severe vineyard losses during unexpected frosts in previous years, leading them to adopt protective coverings—though early cold spells continue to pose serious challenges.
Expert guidance and adaptation
Doctor of Agricultural Sciences Qurbonali Partoyev recommends winter irrigation, particularly on irrigated lands.
“Winter irrigation helps delay premature plant growth and destroys pest larvae that could damage crops in spring,” he said, stressing its importance during snowless winters. Experts also advise mulching to retain soil moisture and reduce heat stress later in the season.
Scientists emphasize that continued adaptation to climate change is essential. Tajikistan is already working to modernize irrigation systems, improve water management, introduce drought-resistant crops, and expand drip irrigation.
“Training farmers in modern agricultural technologies is one of the key factors in building resilience to climate change,” Hoitboyev noted.
As climate volatility becomes increasingly common, experts and farmers alike warn that proactive measures will be critical to safeguarding Tajikistan’s harvests in the years ahead.
